Serie C — Brazil
Sat, Sep 20 2025 • 20:00 • Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.02) 0.57 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.0% 33.3% 19.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
20.8%
0 - 0
19.6%
1 - 1
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
Ponte Preta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nautico Recife 0 19.6% 11.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.8% 11.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.0% 6.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNautico RecifePonte Preta
Played55
Form67%100%
Attack100%100%
Defense25%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.61 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

50%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

53%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nautico Recife Ponte Preta
HATHAT
Played111021111021
Wins55%50%52%64%60%62%
Draws27%30%29%18%10%14%
Loses18%20%19%18%30%24%

Form: Nautico Recife: LDLDWWLDWWDDWWWWWDWWL • Ponte Preta: DWWWWLWLDWWLWLDLWWWWW

League goals

Metric Nautico Recife Ponte Preta
HATHAT
GF total131326111122
GF avg1.21.31.21.01.11.0
GA total4597916
GA avg0.40.50.40.60.90.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNautico RecifePonte Preta
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%29%86%48%
1.538%14%19%19%
2.514%0%0%5%
3.55%0%0%5%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNautico RecifePonte Preta
HATHAT
Clean sheets87157411
Failed to score527213

Penalties

MetricNautico RecifePonte Preta
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 66.67%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 33.33%
Total13

Streaks

MetricNautico RecifePonte Preta
Wins54
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-42-01-2
Biggest losses0-22-11-42-0
Goals For3422
Goals Against2242

Model comparison

MetricNautico RecifePonte Preta
Form40%60%
Att50%50%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h29%71%
Goals40%60%
Total41.8%58.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ponte Preta and -3.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.07 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.06 @ Pinnacle
Away3.94 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.16 @ Pinnacle
No1.69 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.53 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.50 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nautico Recife = 1.06 (league 1.02), Ponte Preta = 0.57 (league 0.77)

Ponte Preta
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nautico Recife 0 19.6% 11.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.8% 11.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.0% 6.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.0% · Draw 33.3% · Away win 19.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1