Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 20:00 • Estádio Moisés Lucarelli
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.49 (league 1.01) 1.01 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.7% 34.8% 47.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.5%
0 - 0
22.3%
0 - 2
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
Nautico Recife
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ponte Preta 0 22.3% 22.5% 11.3% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.0% 11.1% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPonte PretaNautico Recife
Played55
Form100%47%
Attack100%100%
Defense80%20%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

49%
FT probability

2.5+

34%
FT probability

3.5+

24%
FT probability

BTTS

52%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ponte Preta Nautico Recife
HATHAT
Played111122121022
Wins64%64%64%50%50%50%
Draws18%9%14%25%30%27%
Loses18%27%23%25%20%23%

Form: Ponte Preta: DWWWWLWLDWWLWLDLWWWWWW • Nautico Recife: LDLDWWLDWWDDWWWWWDWWLL

League goals

Metric Ponte Preta Nautico Recife
HATHAT
GF total111223131326
GF avg1.01.11.01.11.31.2
GA total79165510
GA avg0.60.80.70.40.50.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePonte PretaNautico Recife
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%45%64%32%
1.518%18%36%14%
2.50%5%14%0%
3.50%5%5%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPonte PretaNautico Recife
HATHAT
Clean sheets75128715
Failed to score213628

Penalties

MetricPonte PretaNautico Recife
Scored (total | %)2 | 66.67%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 33.33%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricPonte PretaNautico Recife
Wins45
Draws12
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-23-00-4
Biggest losses1-42-00-22-1
Goals For2234
Goals Against4222

Model comparison

MetricPonte PretaNautico Recife
Form68%32%
Att55%45%
Def80%20%
Poisson Distribution32%68%
H2h80%20%
Goals67%33%
Total63.7%36.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Ponte Preta or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.95 @ Unibet
Draw3.02 @ Pinnacle
Away5.31 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.25 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.36 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.75 @ Bet365
No1.50 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ponte Preta = 0.49 (league 1.01), Nautico Recife = 1.01 (league 0.77)

Nautico Recife
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ponte Preta 0 22.3% 22.5% 11.3% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2%
1 11.0% 11.1% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
2 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.7% · Draw 34.8% · Away win 47.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1