Serie C — Brazil
Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 20:00 • Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.44 (league 1.02) 1.35 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.1% 28.2% 59.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.5%
0 - 0
16.7%
0 - 2
15.2%
Score & goals probability table
Nautico Recife
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guarani Campinas 0 16.7% 22.5% 15.2% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6%
1 7.4% 9.9% 6.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
2 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuarani CampinasNautico Recife
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack70%50%
Defense40%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

52%
FT probability

2.5+

37%
FT probability

3.5+

26%
FT probability

BTTS

53%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guarani Campinas Nautico Recife
HATHAT
Played121123121123
Wins50%27%39%50%45%48%
Draws17%36%26%25%36%30%
Loses33%36%35%25%18%22%

Form: Guarani Campinas: LLLWLDDWWWDDLLDWWWDLWWL • Nautico Recife: LDLDWWLDWWDDWWWWWDWWLLD

League goals

Metric Guarani Campinas Nautico Recife
HATHAT
GF total111425131427
GF avg0.91.31.11.11.31.2
GA total915245611
GA avg0.81.41.00.40.50.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuarani CampinasNautico Recife
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.561%65%65%35%
1.539%26%35%13%
2.54%13%13%0%
3.54%0%4%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuarani CampinasNautico Recife
HATHAT
Clean sheets5388715
Failed to score549628

Penalties

MetricGuarani CampinasNautico Recife
Scored (total | %)1 | 50.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 50.00%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricGuarani CampinasNautico Recife
Wins35
Draws22
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-23-00-4
Biggest losses2-32-00-22-1
Goals For2434
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricGuarani CampinasNautico Recife
Form50%50%
Att58%42%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h62%38%
Goals63%38%
Total50.3%49.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Guarani Campinas or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.18 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.13 @ Pinnacle
Away3.50 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.52 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.25 @ Pinnacle
No1.67 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Guarani Campinas = 0.44 (league 1.02), Nautico Recife = 1.35 (league 0.77)

Nautico Recife
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guarani Campinas 0 16.7% 22.5% 15.2% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6%
1 7.4% 9.9% 6.7% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
2 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.1% · Draw 28.2% · Away win 59.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1