Serie C — Brazil
Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 20:00 • Estádio Moisés Lucarelli
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.02) 1.18 (league 0.77)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.0% 26.5% 32.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.6%
1 - 0
10.7%
0 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Guarani Campinas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ponte Preta 0 7.8% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
1 10.7% 12.6% 7.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.3% 8.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPonte PretaGuarani Campinas
Played55
Form67%47%
Attack63%75%
Defense63%38%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ponte Preta Guarani Campinas
HATHAT
Played121224131124
Wins58%58%58%46%27%38%
Draws25%8%17%23%36%29%
Loses17%33%25%31%36%33%

Form: Ponte Preta: DWWWWLWLDWWLWLDLWWWWWWDL • Guarani Campinas: LLLWLDDWWWDDLLDWWWDLWWLD

League goals

Metric Ponte Preta Guarani Campinas
HATHAT
GF total121325121426
GF avg1.01.11.00.91.31.1
GA total81119101525
GA avg0.70.90.80.81.41.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePonte PretaGuarani Campinas
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%50%63%67%
1.517%21%38%25%
2.50%4%4%13%
3.50%4%4%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPonte PretaGuarani Campinas
HATHAT
Clean sheets7512538
Failed to score213549

Penalties

MetricPonte PretaGuarani Campinas
Scored (total | %)2 | 66.67%1 | 50.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 33.33%1 | 50.00%
Total32

Streaks

MetricPonte PretaGuarani Campinas
Wins63
Draws12
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-22-10-2
Biggest losses1-42-02-32-0
Goals For2224
Goals Against4233

Model comparison

MetricPonte PretaGuarani Campinas
Form59%41%
Att45%55%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h62%38%
Goals63%38%
Total58.0%42.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Ponte Preta or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.55 @ Betano
Draw3.00 @ Bet365
Away3.50 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.08 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.40 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.50 @ Bet365
No1.60 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ponte Preta = 1.37 (league 1.02), Guarani Campinas = 1.18 (league 0.77)

Guarani Campinas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ponte Preta 0 7.8% 9.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
1 10.7% 12.6% 7.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.3% 8.7% 5.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.4% 4.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.0% · Draw 26.5% · Away win 32.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1