Carioca - 2 — Brazil
Wed, Nov 5 2025 • 18:00 • Estádio Mourão Filho
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.82 (league 1.07) 0.88 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.6% 22.6% 17.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.3%
2 - 0
11.2%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
Friburguense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Paduano 0 6.8% 5.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 12.3% 10.8% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.2% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 6.8% 5.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPaduanoFriburguense
Played55
Form0%7%
Attack22%22%
Defense0%22%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.42 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Paduano Friburguense
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins25%20%22%20%0%11%
Draws0%20%11%0%25%11%
Loses75%60%67%80%75%78%

Form: Paduano: WDLWLLLLL • Friburguense: LLWLLDLLL

League goals

Metric Paduano Friburguense
HATHAT
GF total549123
GF avg1.30.81.00.20.50.3
GA total67134610
GA avg1.51.41.40.81.51.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePaduanoFriburguense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.544%89%33%89%
1.522%56%0%11%
2.511%0%0%11%
3.511%0%0%0%
4.511%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPaduanoFriburguense
HATHAT
Clean sheets011101
Failed to score325426

Penalties

MetricPaduanoFriburguense
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricPaduanoFriburguense
Wins11
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-21-21-0—
Biggest losses0-22-00-13-1
Goals For5211
Goals Against2213

Model comparison

MetricPaduanoFriburguense
Form0%100%
Att50%50%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution71%29%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total55.0%45.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Friburguense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.00 @ Betfair
Draw3.15 @ Pinnacle
Away3.90 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.25 @ Superbet
No1.67 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.47 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Paduano = 1.82 (league 1.07), Friburguense = 0.88 (league 0.86)

Friburguense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Paduano 0 6.8% 5.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 12.3% 10.8% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.2% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 6.8% 5.9% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.6% · Draw 22.6% · Away win 17.7%

Vtot 3 , Vtod1