Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Comunale Giovanni Provasi
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.33)
1.30 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6% | 28.6% | 47.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.5%
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 0
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Milan II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Castellanzese | 0 | 11.9% | 15.5% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Castellanzese carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 23 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Castellanzese -3.4, Milan II -14.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Castellanzese
vs
Milan II
Elo gapCastellanzese +23
Home / draw / away38% / 27% / 35%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3031
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3031
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.4 | 1521.6 |
| Form Elo | 1516.3 | 1524.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1501.9 | 1518.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1494.2 | 1539.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1562.5 | 1552.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.4 | -14.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Castellanzese last-5 Elo change: -3.4; Milan II last-5 Elo change: -14.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 24% | 41% |
| Defense | 65% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 44% | 19% | 31% | 38% | 50% | 44% |
| Draws | 25% | 38% | 31% | 31% | 19% | 25% |
| Loses | 31% | 44% | 38% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
CastellanzeseDDLDWWLLWWDDLDWLWLDDLLWWLWDLLLWD
Milan IIWDWDWLLLWWLLWDWWDWLWLDLWWDWDDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 21 | 39 | 22 | 27 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 15 | 20 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 35 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Castellanzese | Milan II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 66% | 75% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 41% | 50% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 3% | 25% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-8 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Castellanzese | Milan II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 38.2% | 61.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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