Serie D - Girone B — Italy
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 • Leon Arena
Match Finished

Leon Monza e Brianza

2 - 2

Chievo

Expected Goals
1.15 (league 1.34) 1.29 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.8% 27.4% 39.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 1
11.3%
1 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Chievo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Leon Monza e Brianza 0 8.8% 11.3% 7.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%
1 10.1% 12.9% 8.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3%
2 5.8% 7.4% 4.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 2.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Leon Monza e Brianza carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 60 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Leon Monza e Brianza +13.5, Chievo +39.4.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Leon Monza e Brianza Elo 1559.9 · +13.5
vs
Chievo Elo 1535.3 · +39.4
Elo gapLeon Monza e Brianza +60
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3095.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3095.2
Elo home share 58%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Leon Monza e Brianza Chievo
Overall Elo1559.91535.3
Form Elo1577.31542.2
Home / Away Elo1515.11540
Attack Elo15181548.9
Defense Elo1556.41520
Last 5 Elo change+13.5+39.4

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Leon Monza e Brianza last-5 Elo change: +13.5; Chievo last-5 Elo change: +39.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLeon Monza e BrianzaChievo
Played55
Form67%87%
Attack47%65%
Defense71%76%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Leon Monza e Brianza Chievo
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins38%50%44%50%56%53%
Draws38%25%31%19%13%16%
Loses25%25%25%31%31%31%
Leon Monza e BrianzaDDDDDLWWLLWDWDDWDLLWLWWWWLWWWWLD
ChievoWWLWDWWWWDWLWLLLWDDLWWLLLWLWWWWD

League goals

Metric Leon Monza e Brianza Chievo
HATHAT
GF total231942262248
GF avg1.41.21.31.61.41.5
GA total171431231740
GA avg1.10.91.01.41.11.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLeon Monza e BrianzaChievo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.566%66%81%63%
1.547%25%47%34%
2.516%6%16%22%
3.53%0%6%6%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLeon Monza e BrianzaChievo
HATHAT
Clean sheets56115712
Failed to score5611336

Penalties

MetricLeon Monza e BrianzaChievo
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricLeon Monza e BrianzaChievo
Wins44
Draws52
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-11-34-11-3
Biggest losses0-33-01-44-1
Goals For4343
Goals Against3344

Model comparison

MetricLeon Monza e BrianzaChievo
Form43%57%
Att42%58%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total45.0%55.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.75 @ Dafabet
Draw3.10 @ 10Bet
Away2.43 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.02 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.69 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.77 @ Marathonbet
No1.90 @ 1xBet
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League standings

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