Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Campo Sportivo Comunale Brusaporto
Expected Goals
0.45 (league 1.33)
1.55 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.5% | 24.7% | 64.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
21.0%
0 - 2
16.3%
0 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Folgore Caratese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Brusaporto | 0 | 13.5% | 21.0% | 16.3% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Folgore Caratese carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 60 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Brusaporto -13.5, Folgore Caratese +10.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Brusaporto
vs
Folgore Caratese
Elo gapFolgore Caratese +60
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3101.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3101.8
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.4 | 1598.4 |
| Form Elo | 1491.9 | 1606.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1467.6 | 1549.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1449.7 | 1598.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1569.5 | 1610.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.5 | +10.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Brusaporto last-5 Elo change: -13.5; Folgore Caratese last-5 Elo change: +10.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 73% |
| Attack | 29% | 53% |
| Defense | 53% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 40% | 50% | 45% | 50% | 56% | 53% |
| Draws | 13% | 25% | 19% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Loses | 47% | 25% | 35% | 13% | 6% | 9% |
BrusaportoWLWWDWWDWWWLDWDLWLLLWDLWDLLLWLW
Folgore CarateseWWWWDWLDLWWDWWWDDDWDWLWWDDDWWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 22 | 37 | 28 | 22 | 50 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 19 | 13 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 88% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 23% | 44% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 6% | 16% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Brusaporto | Folgore Caratese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 27% | 73% |
| Poisson Distribution | 26% | 74% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 37.3% | 62.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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