Serie D - Girone C — Italy
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 • Stadio Guido Teghil
Not Started

Brian Lignano

—

Bassano Virtus

Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.22) 0.81 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.1% 33.5% 30.3%
best score tips
0 - 0
17.6%
1 - 0
16.2%
0 - 1
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
Bassano Virtus
0 1 2 3 4 5
Brian Lignano 0 17.6% 14.4% 5.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
1 16.2% 13.2% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
2 7.5% 6.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Brian Lignano carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 42 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Brian Lignano +48.2, Bassano Virtus +28.6.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Brian Lignano Elo 1554 · +48.2
vs
Bassano Virtus Elo 1547 · +28.6
Elo gapBrian Lignano +42
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3101
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3101
Elo home share 56%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Brian Lignano Bassano Virtus
Overall Elo15541547
Form Elo1579.21561.5
Home / Away Elo1509.91502.9
Attack Elo1571.61524.9
Defense Elo1577.11613.1
Last 5 Elo change+48.2+28.6

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Brian Lignano last-5 Elo change: +48.2; Bassano Virtus last-5 Elo change: +28.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBrian LignanoBassano Virtus
Played55
Form100%80%
Attack100%100%
Defense64%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)18 | 3.611 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Brian Lignano Bassano Virtus
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins50%44%47%44%31%38%
Draws25%19%22%44%38%41%
Loses25%38%31%13%31%22%
Brian LignanoWLLWWLWDLLWLWWDDLWLWDLDDDWLWWWWW
Bassano VirtusLLWLDWWDWDDWDWDDDWLLDDDLWDDWWWLW

League goals

Metric Brian Lignano Bassano Virtus
HATHAT
GF total252853221436
GF avg1.61.81.71.40.91.1
GA total161733141125
GA avg1.01.11.00.90.70.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBrian LignanoBassano Virtus
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%72%63%59%
1.547%25%28%16%
2.528%6%13%3%
3.513%0%9%0%
4.53%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBrian LignanoBassano Virtus
HATHAT
Clean sheets7295813
Failed to score45921012

Penalties

MetricBrian LignanoBassano Virtus
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricBrian LignanoBassano Virtus
Wins23
Draws33
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-64-01-4
Biggest losses1-33-21-32-0
Goals For4644
Goals Against3332

Model comparison

MetricBrian LignanoBassano Virtus
Form56%44%
Att62%38%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total52.3%47.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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