Serie D - Girone C — Italy
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 • Stadio Via Rizzolo
Not Started

Cjarlins Muzane

—

San Luigi

Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.22) 0.80 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.1% 26.8% 20.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.3%
1 - 1
12.2%
2 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
San Luigi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Cjarlins Muzane 0 10.6% 8.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
1 15.3% 12.2% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
2 11.1% 8.8% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 5.4% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Cjarlins Muzane carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cjarlins Muzane -6.6, San Luigi -29.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Cjarlins Muzane Elo 1495.5 · -6.6
vs
San Luigi Elo 1440.3 · -29.6
Elo gapCjarlins Muzane +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2935.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2935.8
Elo home share 63%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Cjarlins Muzane San Luigi
Overall Elo1495.51440.3
Form Elo1483.81424
Home / Away Elo1507.61484.4
Attack Elo1442.71424.9
Defense Elo1519.51420.6
Last 5 Elo change-6.6-29.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cjarlins Muzane last-5 Elo change: -6.6; San Luigi last-5 Elo change: -29.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCjarlins MuzaneSan Luigi
Played55
Form53%13%
Attack55%18%
Defense64%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.811 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Cjarlins Muzane San Luigi
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins50%25%38%25%25%25%
Draws31%44%38%31%25%28%
Loses19%31%25%44%50%47%
Cjarlins MuzaneWWWWWDDDWLWDWLDDWWLLLDLDLDDWDWDL
San LuigiDWLDDLLWLDLLLWLDWLWLWDDWWLLLDDLL

League goals

Metric Cjarlins Muzane San Luigi
HATHAT
GF total171936131730
GF avg1.11.21.10.81.10.9
GA total132033242549
GA avg0.81.31.01.51.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCjarlins MuzaneSan Luigi
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%69%75%75%
1.531%28%19%41%
2.56%6%0%22%
3.50%0%0%9%
4.50%0%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCjarlins MuzaneSan Luigi
HATHAT
Clean sheets8210538
Failed to score538538

Penalties

MetricCjarlins MuzaneSan Luigi
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricCjarlins MuzaneSan Luigi
Wins52
Draws32
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-32-00-2
Biggest losses0-33-10-64-0
Goals For3322
Goals Against3364

Model comparison

MetricCjarlins MuzaneSan Luigi
Form80%20%
Att75%25%
Def73%27%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total65.3%34.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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