Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Comunale Giovanni Battista Maffeis
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.22)
0.63 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.6% | 33.4% | 21.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
19.6%
0 - 0
18.9%
1 - 1
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Sangiuliano City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Rovato Vertovese | 0 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.2% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Rovato Vertovese carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Rovato Vertovese -5.0, Sangiuliano City -7.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Rovato Vertovese
vs
Sangiuliano City
Elo gapRovato Vertovese +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3061.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3061.1
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1536.5 | 1524.6 |
| Form Elo | 1540.4 | 1522.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.2 | 1517.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1441.6 | 1497.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1593.1 | 1532.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.0 | -7.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Rovato Vertovese last-5 Elo change: -5.0; Sangiuliano City last-5 Elo change: -7.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 25% | 67% |
| Defense | 75% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 25% | 41% | 38% | 50% | 44% |
| Draws | 31% | 31% | 31% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Loses | 13% | 44% | 28% | 38% | 25% | 31% |
Rovato VertoveseWLDLLWWDLWWDLDWLWDLWLWWWDWDWDDDL
Sangiuliano CityWWDLDDDDLWDLWDLWWLWWLWWLWLWLWDWL
League goals
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 16 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 11 | 17 | 28 | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 59% | 78% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 19% | 34% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Rovato Vertovese | Sangiuliano City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 50.5% | 49.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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