Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Ernesto Breda
Expected Goals
2.25 (league 1.22)
0.43 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.3% | 15.3% | 5.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
17.3%
1 - 0
15.5%
3 - 0
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Tuttocuoio | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pro Sesto | 0 | 6.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.5% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.0% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Pro Sesto carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 285 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pro Sesto -8.7, Tuttocuoio -37.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Pro Sesto
vs
Tuttocuoio
Elo gapPro Sesto +285
Home / draw / away69% / 18% / 13%
Expected home share84%
Combined Elo2819.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2819.4
Elo home share
84%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1534.9 | 1284.5 |
| Form Elo | 1518.3 | 1253.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.6 | 1420.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.4 | 1299.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1575.7 | 1291.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.7 | -37.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Pro Sesto last-5 Elo change: -8.7; Tuttocuoio last-5 Elo change: -37.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 0% |
| Attack | 42% | 8% |
| Defense | 33% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 12 | 2.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 44% | 44% | 44% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 31% | 31% | 31% | 19% | 25% | 22% |
| Loses | 25% | 25% | 25% | 81% | 75% | 78% |
Pro SestoWWWDDLWDWDDWWWLWWLDWDWDLWLLWLDDL
TuttocuoioDLLLDLLDLDLLLLLLDDLLDLLLLLLLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 22 | 43 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 13 | 16 | 29 | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 53% | 38% | 94% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 28% | 9% | 66% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 6% | 0% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 0% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-1 | 0-6 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pro Sesto | Tuttocuoio |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 83% | 17% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 82% | 18% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 75.0% | 25.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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