Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Comunale Mario Zanconti
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.22)
1.88 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% | 21.1% | 65.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.7%
0 - 2
13.9%
1 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Lentigione | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Trevigliese | 0 | 7.8% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Lentigione carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 207 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Trevigliese -22.5, Lentigione -1.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Trevigliese
vs
Lentigione
Elo gapLentigione +207
Home / draw / away19% / 18% / 63%
Expected home share23%
Combined Elo3028.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3028.1
Elo home share
23%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1393.1 | 1635 |
| Form Elo | 1385.2 | 1641.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1441.2 | 1587.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1394 | 1576.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1404.6 | 1659.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.5 | -1.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Trevigliese last-5 Elo change: -22.5; Lentigione last-5 Elo change: -1.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 67% |
| Attack | 8% | 67% |
| Defense | 8% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
67%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 6% | 25% | 16% | 63% | 69% | 66% |
| Draws | 38% | 6% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 19% |
| Loses | 56% | 69% | 63% | 13% | 19% | 16% |
TreviglieseLWLWLLLLLLLWLWDLDDLLDLLLDWDLLLLD
LentigioneWLWWWWDWLLWDWWWWWWDWWLDWWWDDWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 47 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 24 | 32 | 56 | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Trevigliese | Lentigione | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 91% | 88% | 47% |
| 1.5 | 13% | 50% | 34% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 22% | 16% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 9% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 17 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-3 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Trevigliese | Lentigione |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 9% | 91% |
| Att | 11% | 89% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 18.8% | 81.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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