Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 •
Immergas Stadium - Levantini
Expected Goals
2.10 (league 1.21)
0.29 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 78.2% | 15.6% | 4.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
20.2%
1 - 0
19.2%
3 - 0
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Sant'Angelo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lentigione | 0 | 9.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 19.2% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.1% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lentigione carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 230 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lentigione +4.9, Sant'Angelo -4.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lentigione
vs
Sant'Angelo
Elo gapLentigione +230
Home / draw / away65% / 18% / 17%
Expected home share79%
Combined Elo3086.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3086.3
Elo home share
79%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1640.6 | 1445.7 |
| Form Elo | 1650.2 | 1446.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1538.2 | 1450.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1579.2 | 1441.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1658 | 1450.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.9 | -4.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lentigione last-5 Elo change: +4.9; Sant'Angelo last-5 Elo change: -4.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 33% |
| Attack | 90% | 50% |
| Defense | 50% | 30% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 63% | 71% | 67% | 41% | 19% | 30% |
| Draws | 25% | 12% | 18% | 24% | 25% | 24% |
| Loses | 13% | 18% | 15% | 35% | 56% | 45% |
LentigioneWLWWWWDWLLWDWWWWWWDWWLDWWWDDWWWLW
Sant'AngeloWLLDWWLLWDLLWLWLLDDDDLWLLWWLLLDWD
League goals
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 25 | 49 | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 6 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 27 | 49 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 48% | 73% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 36% | 9% | 27% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 6% | 6% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 3% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lentigione | Sant'Angelo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 72.8% | 27.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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