Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Buitoni
Expected Goals
0.76 (league 1.26)
0.95 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.8% | 33.7% | 38.4% |
best score tips
0 - 0
18.1%
0 - 1
17.2%
1 - 0
13.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Camaiore | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sansepolcro | 0 | 18.1% | 17.2% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.8% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Camaiore carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sansepolcro -3.3, Camaiore -21.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Sansepolcro
vs
Camaiore
Elo gapCamaiore +20
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2834
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2834
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1389.4 | 1444.6 |
| Form Elo | 1384.1 | 1430.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.1 | 1490.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1362.6 | 1489.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1458.9 | 1425.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.3 | -21.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Sansepolcro last-5 Elo change: -3.3; Camaiore last-5 Elo change: -21.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 13% |
| Attack | 31% | 31% |
| Defense | 50% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 13% | 0% | 6% | 24% | 31% | 27% |
| Draws | 56% | 35% | 45% | 29% | 13% | 21% |
| Loses | 31% | 65% | 48% | 47% | 56% | 52% |
SansepolcroWLDDDDLLLLLWDLLDDLLDDLLDLDDLLDDDL
CamaioreLWDLDWLLDLLLLWLWDDWLWWLLLWWLDLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 11 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 41 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 15 | 31 | 46 | 29 | 25 | 54 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sansepolcro | Camaiore | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 79% | 79% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 12% | 45% | 42% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 9% | 3% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 9 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 2-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sansepolcro | Camaiore |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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