Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 13:30 • Stadio Comunale Fossombrone
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.76 (league 1.31) 2.06 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
12.6% 19.6% 65.9%
best score tips
0 - 2
12.7%
0 - 1
12.3%
1 - 2
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Ascoli
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fossombrone 0 6.0% 12.3% 12.7% 8.7% 4.5% 1.8%
1 4.5% 9.3% 9.6% 6.6% 3.4% 1.4%
2 1.7% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5%
3 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFossombroneAtletico Ascoli
Played55
Form80%53%
Attack55%64%
Defense64%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fossombrone Atletico Ascoli
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins29%43%36%29%57%43%
Draws29%29%29%43%14%29%
Loses43%29%36%29%29%29%

Form: Fossombrone: DDWDDLLLLWWLWW • Atletico Ascoli: DDLLLWWWWDLDWW

League goals

Metric Fossombrone Atletico Ascoli
HATHAT
GF total671371926
GF avg0.91.00.91.02.71.9
GA total69157815
GA avg0.91.31.11.01.11.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFossombroneAtletico Ascoli
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%71%79%57%
1.521%21%50%36%
2.50%14%29%14%
3.50%0%14%0%
4.50%0%7%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFossombroneAtletico Ascoli
HATHAT
Clean sheets224336
Failed to score224303

Penalties

MetricFossombroneAtletico Ascoli
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricFossombroneAtletico Ascoli
Wins24
Draws22
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-22-01-6
Biggest losses1-23-00-23-1
Goals For2226
Goals Against2323

Model comparison

MetricFossombroneAtletico Ascoli
Form60%40%
Att46%54%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution28%72%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total47.3%52.7%

Advice: Double chance : Fossombrone or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.50 @ Betano
Draw3.24 @ Marathonbet
Away2.55 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.86 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.51.83 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Marathonbet
No2.04 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Fossombrone = 0.76 (league 1.31), Atletico Ascoli = 2.06 (league 1.18)

Atletico Ascoli
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fossombrone 0 6.0% 12.3% 12.7% 8.7% 4.5% 1.8%
1 4.5% 9.3% 9.6% 6.6% 3.4% 1.4%
2 1.7% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5%
3 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.6% · Draw 19.6% · Away win 65.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1