Sun, Dec 21 2025 • 13:30 • Stadio Comunale Fossombrone
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.32) 0.75 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.1% 31.7% 25.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.2%
0 - 0
15.8%
1 - 1
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
Recanatese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fossombrone 0 15.8% 11.9% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.2% 13.0% 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.4% 7.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFossombroneRecanatese
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack33%67%
Defense58%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fossombrone Recanatese
HATHAT
Played88168816
Wins25%38%31%25%25%25%
Draws38%25%31%25%13%19%
Loses38%38%38%50%63%56%

Form: Fossombrone: DDWDDLLLLWWLWWDL • Recanatese: LWDLLLLLLWLWDDWL

League goals

Metric Fossombrone Recanatese
HATHAT
GF total671311920
GF avg0.80.90.81.41.11.3
GA total61016151429
GA avg0.81.31.01.91.81.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFossombroneRecanatese
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.563%69%75%94%
1.519%19%31%56%
2.50%13%13%19%
3.50%0%6%13%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFossombroneRecanatese
HATHAT
Clean sheets325101
Failed to score336134

Penalties

MetricFossombroneRecanatese
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricFossombroneRecanatese
Wins21
Draws22
Losses46

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-23-11-4
Biggest losses1-23-01-44-1
Goals For2234
Goals Against2344

Model comparison

MetricFossombroneRecanatese
Form47%53%
Att33%67%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h50%50%
Goals57%43%
Total50.0%50.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Recanatese

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.97 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away3.50 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.08 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.74 @ Superbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.82 @ Superbet
No1.88 @ Superbet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Fossombrone = 1.09 (league 1.32), Recanatese = 0.75 (league 1.17)

Recanatese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fossombrone 0 15.8% 11.9% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.2% 13.0% 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.4% 7.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.1% · Draw 31.7% · Away win 25.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1