Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 13:30 • Nicola Tubaldi
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.52 (league 1.31) 1.29 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.3% 11.5% 9.5%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.6%
4 - 1
6.7%
2 - 1
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Sammaurese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Recanatese 0 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.9% 3.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.0% 6.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.9% 7.6% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
5 3.7% 4.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRecanateseSammaurese
Played55
Form27%27%
Attack56%56%
Defense11%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Recanatese Sammaurese
HATHAT
Played8101810818
Wins25%20%22%10%13%11%
Draws25%10%17%30%0%17%
Loses50%70%61%60%88%72%

Form: Recanatese: LWDLLLLLLWLWDDWLLL • Sammaurese: WLLLLDLLLLDLLLLLDW

League goals

Metric Recanatese Sammaurese
HATHAT
GF total119207613
GF avg1.40.91.10.70.80.7
GA total151732152641
GA avg1.91.71.81.53.32.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRecanateseSammaurese
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%94%39%89%
1.528%56%22%61%
2.511%17%11%39%
3.56%11%0%22%
4.50%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRecanateseSammaurese
HATHAT
Clean sheets101202
Failed to score1566511

Penalties

MetricRecanateseSammaurese
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricRecanateseSammaurese
Wins11
Draws21
Losses65

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-43-11-3
Biggest losses1-44-11-47-0
Goals For3433
Goals Against4447

Model comparison

MetricRecanateseSammaurese
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution73%27%
H2h100%0%
Goals80%20%
Total62.2%37.8%

Advice: Double chance : Recanatese or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.83 @ Betano
Draw3.45 @ Dafabet
Away3.88 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.79 @ Marathonbet
No1.89 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Recanatese = 3.52 (league 1.31), Sammaurese = 1.29 (league 1.18)

Sammaurese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Recanatese 0 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.9% 3.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.0% 6.5% 4.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
3 5.9% 7.6% 4.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
5 3.7% 4.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.3% · Draw 11.5% · Away win 9.5%

vtt 1 , vtd1