Sun, Mar 1 2026 • 13:30 • Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Savini
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.32) 0.75 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.0% 31.9% 25.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
17.4%
0 - 0
16.1%
1 - 1
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
Fossombrone
0 1 2 3 4 5
Notaresco 0 16.1% 12.0% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.4% 13.0% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.4% 7.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNotarescoFossombrone
Played55
Form20%13%
Attack13%7%
Defense67%60%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.41 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

61%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Notaresco Fossombrone
HATHAT
Played131225131225
Wins31%42%36%31%33%32%
Draws38%42%40%38%25%32%
Loses31%17%24%31%42%36%

Form: Notaresco: WDWWWLDWWWDLLDDWDWDLLDDDL • Fossombrone: DDWDDLLLLWWLWWDLWWWDLDDLL

League goals

Metric Notaresco Fossombrone
HATHAT
GF total14142891019
GF avg1.11.21.10.70.80.8
GA total1492371623
GA avg1.10.80.90.51.30.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNotarescoFossombrone
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%56%56%60%
1.524%32%20%20%
2.58%4%0%12%
3.58%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNotarescoFossombrone
HATHAT
Clean sheets47117310
Failed to score2576511

Penalties

MetricNotarescoFossombrone
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total51

Streaks

MetricNotarescoFossombrone
Wins33
Draws32
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-42-01-2
Biggest losses1-32-01-23-0
Goals For2422
Goals Against3223

Model comparison

MetricNotarescoFossombrone
Form60%40%
Att67%33%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h62%38%
Goals50%50%
Total58.7%41.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Notaresco or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.25 @ 10Bet
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away3.20 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.35 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.58 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Marathonbet
No1.77 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Notaresco = 1.08 (league 1.32), Fossombrone = 0.75 (league 1.18)

Fossombrone
0 1 2 3 4 5
Notaresco 0 16.1% 12.0% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 17.4% 13.0% 4.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
2 9.4% 7.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.0% · Draw 31.9% · Away win 25.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1