Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Comunale Goffredo Bianchelli
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.31)
0.78 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.7% | 19.4% | 12.8% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.4%
1 - 0
11.8%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Chieti | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vigor Senigallia | 0 | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.8% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.4% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Vigor Senigallia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 120 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vigor Senigallia -3.2, Chieti +20.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Vigor Senigallia
vs
Chieti
Elo gapVigor Senigallia +120
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo2979.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2979.3
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1532.3 | 1447 |
| Form Elo | 1532.5 | 1458.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497.2 | 1450.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1491.3 | 1395.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1548.2 | 1444.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.2 | +20.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Vigor Senigallia last-5 Elo change: -3.2; Chieti last-5 Elo change: +20.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 47% |
| Attack | 83% | 25% |
| Defense | 42% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
73%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 31% | 44% | 38% | 31% | 6% | 19% |
| Draws | 50% | 25% | 38% | 38% | 31% | 34% |
| Loses | 19% | 31% | 25% | 31% | 63% | 47% |
Vigor SenigalliaWDLLLWDWDLWDDLWWWWDWDLDDWDDWLLDW
ChietiDDWDDWDDLLLLLDLLLLWLLDDLWLDLWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 20 | 40 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 18 | 16 | 34 | 19 | 34 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 75% | 56% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 25% | 19% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 6% | 9% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-4 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Chieti |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 77% | 23% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…