Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Campo Da Calcio Macrelli
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.31)
2.36 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.3% | 17.1% | 68.2% |
best score tips
0 - 2
11.5%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Atletico Ascoli | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sammaurese | 0 | 4.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | |
| 2 | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Atletico Ascoli carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 146 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sammaurese -22.4, Atletico Ascoli -0.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sammaurese
vs
Atletico Ascoli
Elo gapAtletico Ascoli +146
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share30%
Combined Elo2955.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2955.9
Elo home share
30%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1387.6 | 1568.3 |
| Form Elo | 1376.4 | 1573.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1456.6 | 1533.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1398.1 | 1555.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1363.6 | 1595.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.4 | -0.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sammaurese last-5 Elo change: -22.4; Atletico Ascoli last-5 Elo change: -0.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 53% |
| Attack | 0% | 50% |
| Defense | 25% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 19% | 6% | 13% | 50% | 38% | 44% |
| Draws | 31% | 13% | 22% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Loses | 50% | 81% | 66% | 13% | 25% | 19% |
SammaureseWLLLLDLLLLDLLLLLDWDWDLLDLWLLLDLL
Atletico AscoliDDLLLWWWWDLDWWDWWWDLDDWWDWDWLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 13 | 28 | 24 | 30 | 54 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 23 | 45 | 68 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 47% | 88% | 81% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 59% | 50% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 38% | 25% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 19% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 9 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 7-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sammaurese | Atletico Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 11% | 89% |
| Att | 0% | 100% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 26% | 74% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 27.0% | 73.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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