Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Rubens Fadini
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.31)
1.92 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.1% | 21.6% | 60.9% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.0%
0 - 2
11.5%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Ostia Mare | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Giulianova | 0 | 6.3% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Ostia Mare carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 94 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Real Giulianova -7.2, Ostia Mare +18.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Real Giulianova
vs
Ostia Mare
Elo gapOstia Mare +94
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo3187.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3187.1
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1529.3 | 1657.8 |
| Form Elo | 1525 | 1677.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1523.8 | 1585.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1455.8 | 1633.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1582.9 | 1628.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.2 | +18.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Real Giulianova last-5 Elo change: -7.2; Ostia Mare last-5 Elo change: +18.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 100% |
| Attack | 25% | 100% |
| Defense | 75% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 50% | 12% | 30% | 71% | 75% | 73% |
| Draws | 31% | 65% | 48% | 24% | 19% | 21% |
| Loses | 19% | 24% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Real GiulianovaWDLDLDDLDLWDWDWWDLDDWDWWDWLDWDDLD
Ostia MareWWWWWWWWWDWWWDLWDLWWDDDWWWWDWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 10 | 36 | 37 | 28 | 65 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 19 | 12 | 31 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 70% | 88% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 18% | 58% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 3% | 30% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 9 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-2 | 7-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Real Giulianova | Ostia Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 29% | 71% |
| Att | 18% | 82% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 38.0% | 62.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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