Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.46)
1.99 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8% | 21.6% | 45.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
8.7%
2 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Montespaccato | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ischia | 0 | 2.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Ischia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 46 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ischia -40.8, Montespaccato -33.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ischia
vs
Montespaccato
Elo gapIschia +46
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2906.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2906.3
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1458.6 | 1447.7 |
| Form Elo | 1436.8 | 1438.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1484.1 | 1487.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1408.6 | 1505.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1460.7 | 1452.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -40.8 | -33.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ischia last-5 Elo change: -40.8; Montespaccato last-5 Elo change: -33.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 13% |
| Attack | 7% | 53% |
| Defense | 27% | 27% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 38% | 25% | 31% | 13% | 25% | 19% |
| Draws | 13% | 31% | 22% | 50% | 25% | 38% |
| Loses | 50% | 44% | 47% | 38% | 50% | 44% |
IschiaLLDLDLLWWDWLWWWLWDDLLDWWWLLDLLLL
MontespaccatoLLLLDLDDWLDWLLDWLLDWLDDWDDWDLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 14 | 34 | 21 | 24 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 26 | 26 | 52 | 24 | 29 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ischia | Montespaccato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 91% | 84% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 44% | 44% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 22% | 13% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ischia | Montespaccato |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 11% | 89% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 34.8% | 65.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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