Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Centro Sportivo Francesca Gianni
Expected Goals
1.86 (league 1.46)
0.79 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.4% | 21.9% | 15.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.1%
2 - 0
12.2%
1 - 1
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Real Monterotondo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atletico Lodigiani | 0 | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Atletico Lodigiani carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 96 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Lodigiani -10.0, Real Monterotondo +26.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Atletico Lodigiani
vs
Real Monterotondo
Elo gapAtletico Lodigiani +96
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2951.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2951.2
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1506.1 | 1445.1 |
| Form Elo | 1493.2 | 1456.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1528.6 | 1451.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.6 | 1460.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1554.7 | 1419.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.0 | +26.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Atletico Lodigiani last-5 Elo change: -10.0; Real Monterotondo last-5 Elo change: +26.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 20% | 60% |
| Defense | 80% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 50% | 13% | 31% | 44% | 13% | 28% |
| Draws | 19% | 50% | 34% | 13% | 25% | 19% |
| Loses | 31% | 38% | 34% | 44% | 63% | 53% |
Atletico LodigianiDLLLDDLDWLWLWDWDDWWWWDLLWDLLWDDL
Real MonterotondoLLWWLLLLLDLLWDLDLDWLWLLLDWLLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 16 | 41 | 25 | 12 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 19 | 19 | 38 | 26 | 27 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 78% | 69% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 6% | 13% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-2 | 1-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atletico Lodigiani | Real Monterotondo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 50.2% | 49.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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