Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:00 •
Stadio Marcello Torre
Expected Goals
0.70 (league 1.43)
1.55 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.8% | 25.5% | 57.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
16.4%
0 - 2
12.7%
1 - 1
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Virtus Francavilla | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paganese | 0 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 53% |
| Attack | 35% | 65% |
| Defense | 76% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 67% | 60% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% | 40% |
| Loses | 50% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
Form: Paganese: WLLWW • Virtus Francavilla: DWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 80% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 0% | 60% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 20% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 1-0 | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Paganese | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 35% | 65% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 35% | 65% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Virtus Francavilla
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Paganese = 0.70 (league 1.43), Virtus Francavilla = 1.55 (league 0.97)
| Virtus Francavilla | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paganese | 0 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.8% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 57.2%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1