Sun, Oct 12 2025 • 13:30 •
Stadio Comunale Giovanni Paolo II
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.43)
2.98 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | 12.2% | 72.2% |
best score tips
0 - 2
9.8%
0 - 3
9.7%
1 - 2
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Afragolese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nardò | 0 | 2.2% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.3% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 75% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 0% | 33% | 17% | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Draws | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 33% | 17% |
| Loses | 67% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
Form: Nardò: LLDWLD • Afragolese: LLDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nardò | Afragolese | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 83% | 83% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 50% | 67% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nardò | Afragolese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 23% | 77% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Advice: Winner : Afragolese
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Nardò = 0.83 (league 1.43), Afragolese = 2.98 (league 0.97)
| Afragolese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nardò | 0 | 2.2% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.3% |
| 1 | 1.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 7.4% · Draw 12.2% · Away win 72.2%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1