Sun, Nov 16 2025 • 15:00 •
Stadio Comunale Giovanni Paolo II
Expected Goals
2.02 (league 1.43)
1.86 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.9% | 21.0% | 35.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
7.8%
1 - 1
7.8%
2 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Virtus Francavilla | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nardò | 0 | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 40% | 17% | 27% | 33% | 20% | 27% |
| Draws | 20% | 50% | 36% | 33% | 40% | 36% |
| Loses | 40% | 33% | 36% | 33% | 40% | 36% |
Form: Nardò: LLDWLDWLDWD • Virtus Francavilla: DWDLWDLDLLW
League goals
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 5 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 64% | 73% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 36% | 45% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 9% | 18% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nardò | Virtus Francavilla |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 57.5% | 42.7% |
Advice: Double chance : Nardò or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Nardò = 2.02 (league 1.43), Virtus Francavilla = 1.86 (league 0.97)
| Virtus Francavilla | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nardò | 0 | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.9% · Draw 21.0% · Away win 35.2%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1