Sun, Nov 30 2025 • 13:30 • Stadio Comunale Giovanni Paolo II
Match Finished
1 - 1
Expected Goals
4.03 (league 1.49) 1.50 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
59.0% 10.0% 8.6%
best score tips
4 - 1
6.5%
3 - 1
6.5%
5 - 1
5.3%
Score & goals probability table
Sarnese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nardò 0 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 3.2% 4.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.3% 6.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
4 4.4% 6.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
5 3.5% 5.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNardòSarnese
Played55
Form73%33%
Attack100%100%
Defense57%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.211 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.611 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nardò Sarnese
HATHAT
Played67137613
Wins50%29%38%29%17%23%
Draws17%43%31%43%17%31%
Loses33%29%31%29%67%46%

Form: Nardò: LLDWLDWLDWDWW • Sarnese: DWWLLLDLDLLDW

League goals

Metric Nardò Sarnese
HATHAT
GF total12618101121
GF avg2.00.91.41.41.81.6
GA total591461824
GA avg0.81.31.10.93.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNardòSarnese
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%62%77%85%
1.531%38%38%54%
2.531%8%23%23%
3.58%0%8%15%
4.50%0%8%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNardòSarnese
HATHAT
Clean sheets325202
Failed to score134303

Penalties

MetricNardòSarnese
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricNardòSarnese
Wins12
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-02-36-12-3
Biggest losses0-23-01-25-1
Goals For4363
Goals Against2325

Model comparison

MetricNardòSarnese
Form69%31%
Att50%50%
Def79%21%
Poisson Distribution73%27%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total67.8%32.3%

Advice: Combo Winner : Nardò and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.01 @ 1xBet
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away3.40 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.08 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.60 @ Unibet
No2.17 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nardò = 4.03 (league 1.49), Sarnese = 1.50 (league 0.96)

Sarnese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nardò 0 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 3.2% 4.8% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
3 4.3% 6.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
4 4.4% 6.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
5 3.5% 5.3% 4.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 59.0% · Draw 10.0% · Away win 8.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1