Sun, Dec 21 2025 • 13:30 • Stadio Felice Squitieri
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.68 (league 1.43) 1.49 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.7% 23.5% 33.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
8.8%
1 - 2
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Virtus Francavilla
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sarnese 0 4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
1 7.1% 10.5% 7.8% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.0% 8.8% 6.6% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
3 3.3% 5.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.4% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSarneseVirtus Francavilla
Played55
Form73%53%
Attack100%50%
Defense40%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)16 | 3.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

84%
FT probability

2.5+

59%
FT probability

3.5+

42%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sarnese Virtus Francavilla
HATHAT
Played88168816
Wins38%25%31%25%38%31%
Draws38%25%31%50%25%38%
Loses25%50%38%25%38%31%

Form: Sarnese: DWWLLLDLDLLDWDWW • Virtus Francavilla: DWDLWDLDLLWLDWWD

League goals

Metric Sarnese Virtus Francavilla
HATHAT
GF total12162891322
GF avg1.52.01.81.11.61.4
GA total7192671320
GA avg0.92.41.60.91.61.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSarneseVirtus Francavilla
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%81%69%81%
1.544%44%44%31%
2.525%19%13%13%
3.513%13%6%0%
4.56%6%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSarneseVirtus Francavilla
HATHAT
Clean sheets213213
Failed to score303325

Penalties

MetricSarneseVirtus Francavilla
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total04

Streaks

MetricSarneseVirtus Francavilla
Wins22
Draws11
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-10-43-02-5
Biggest losses1-25-10-13-0
Goals For6435
Goals Against2523

Model comparison

MetricSarneseVirtus Francavilla
Form58%42%
Att76%24%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution56%44%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total60.0%40.0%

Advice: Double chance : Sarnese or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.15 @ William Hill
Draw3.35 @ Unibet
Away3.23 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.72 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ Superbet
No1.91 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sarnese = 1.68 (league 1.43), Virtus Francavilla = 1.49 (league 0.97)

Virtus Francavilla
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sarnese 0 4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
1 7.1% 10.5% 7.8% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4%
2 6.0% 8.8% 6.6% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
3 3.3% 5.0% 3.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2%
4 1.4% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.7% · Draw 23.5% · Away win 33.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1