Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 14:00 • Stadio Luigi Moccia
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.40) 1.35 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.0% 27.1% 42.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 1
11.8%
1 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Città di Fasano
0 1 2 3 4 5
Afragolese 0 8.7% 11.8% 8.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
1 9.5% 12.8% 8.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 5.1% 7.0% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAfragoleseCittà di Fasano
Played55
Form33%20%
Attack44%22%
Defense56%44%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.82 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Afragolese Città di Fasano
HATHAT
Played89178917
Wins75%22%47%50%33%41%
Draws0%33%18%25%56%41%
Loses25%44%35%25%11%18%

Form: Afragolese: LLDWWWLWWWLWDWDLL • Città di Fasano: WWWWDDWWDWDLDDLLD

League goals

Metric Afragolese Città di Fasano
HATHAT
GF total15112613922
GF avg1.91.21.51.61.01.3
GA total1012229716
GA avg1.31.31.31.10.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAfragoleseCittà di Fasano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.576%71%71%53%
1.547%47%47%29%
2.524%12%12%12%
3.56%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAfragoleseCittà di Fasano
HATHAT
Clean sheets325358
Failed to score044235

Penalties

MetricAfragoleseCittà di Fasano
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricAfragoleseCittà di Fasano
Wins34
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-43-01-2
Biggest losses2-33-00-23-2
Goals For3432
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricAfragoleseCittà di Fasano
Form63%38%
Att67%33%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h33%67%
Goals25%75%
Total48.3%51.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Afragolese or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.52 @ Marathonbet
Draw3.30 @ Betano
Away2.47 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ Superbet
Under 2.51.80 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.74 @ Superbet
No2.00 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Afragolese = 1.09 (league 1.40), Città di Fasano = 1.35 (league 0.96)

Città di Fasano
0 1 2 3 4 5
Afragolese 0 8.7% 11.8% 8.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
1 9.5% 12.8% 8.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 5.1% 7.0% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.0% · Draw 27.1% · Away win 42.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1