Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadio Marcello Torre
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.40)
0.25 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.1% | 48.3% | 12.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
41.6%
1 - 0
26.2%
0 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Nardò | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paganese | 0 | 41.6% | 10.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 60% |
| Attack | 33% | 67% |
| Defense | 78% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
46%
FT probability
2.5+
33%
FT probability
3.5+
23%
FT probability
BTTS
53%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 8 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| Wins | 56% | 63% | 59% | 50% | 22% | 35% |
| Draws | 33% | 13% | 24% | 25% | 56% | 41% |
| Loses | 11% | 25% | 18% | 25% | 22% | 24% |
Form: Paganese: WLLWWDWWDWWDWLWWD • Nardò: LLDWLDWLDWDWWDDWD
League goals
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 9 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Paganese | Nardò | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 47% | 71% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 6% | 24% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 0% | 24% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Paganese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 58.7% | 41.3% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Paganese or draw and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Paganese = 0.63 (league 1.40), Nardò = 0.25 (league 0.97)
| Nardò | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Paganese | 0 | 41.6% | 10.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.1% · Draw 48.3% · Away win 12.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1