Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 13:30 • Stadio Felice Squitieri
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.42) 1.00 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.1% 29.0% 30.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
1 - 0
13.3%
0 - 1
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
Afragolese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sarnese 0 11.1% 11.2% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.3% 13.3% 6.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 7.9% 7.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.1% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSarneseAfragolese
Played55
Form60%27%
Attack100%100%
Defense60%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

66%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sarnese Afragolese
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins33%22%28%67%22%44%
Draws44%33%39%0%33%17%
Loses22%44%33%33%44%39%

Form: Sarnese: DWWLLLDLDLLDWDWWDD • Afragolese: LLDWWWLWWWLWDWDLLL

League goals

Metric Sarnese Afragolese
HATHAT
GF total121628171128
GF avg1.31.81.61.91.21.6
GA total71926131225
GA avg0.82.11.41.41.31.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSarneseAfragolese
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.572%72%78%72%
1.539%39%50%50%
2.522%17%22%17%
3.511%11%6%0%
4.56%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSarneseAfragolese
HATHAT
Clean sheets325325
Failed to score415044

Penalties

MetricSarneseAfragolese
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricSarneseAfragolese
Wins23
Draws11
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-10-42-00-4
Biggest losses1-25-12-33-0
Goals For6434
Goals Against2533

Model comparison

MetricSarneseAfragolese
Form69%31%
Att54%46%
Def78%22%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h100%0%
Goals60%40%
Total64.0%36.0%

Advice: Double chance : Sarnese or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.20 @ William Hill
Draw3.28 @ Pinnacle
Away3.04 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.05 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sarnese = 1.19 (league 1.42), Afragolese = 1.00 (league 0.96)

Afragolese
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sarnese 0 11.1% 11.2% 5.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.3% 13.3% 6.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
2 7.9% 7.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.1% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.1% · Draw 29.0% · Away win 30.7%

vtt 2 , vtd1