Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadio Comunale Pino Zaccheria
Expected Goals
0.34 (league 1.40)
1.25 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 10.2% | 30.1% | 59.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
25.4%
0 - 0
20.4%
0 - 2
15.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Paganese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Heraclea | 0 | 20.4% | 25.4% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 47% |
| Attack | 60% | 40% |
| Defense | 0% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
49%
FT probability
2.5+
35%
FT probability
3.5+
25%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| Wins | 25% | 60% | 44% | 50% | 63% | 56% |
| Draws | 13% | 10% | 11% | 30% | 13% | 22% |
| Loses | 63% | 30% | 44% | 20% | 25% | 22% |
Form: Heraclea: WWLDLWWWWDWLLLLLLW • Paganese: WLLWWDWWDWWDWLWWDL
League goals
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 9 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Heraclea | Paganese | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 61% | 67% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 22% | 17% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 6% | 6% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Heraclea | Paganese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30% | 70% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 36.3% | 63.8% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Heraclea or draw and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Heraclea = 0.34 (league 1.40), Paganese = 1.25 (league 0.97)
| Paganese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Heraclea | 0 | 20.4% | 25.4% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 10.2% · Draw 30.1% · Away win 59.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1