Sun, Apr 12 2026 • 13:30 •
Stadio Felice Squitieri
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.40)
0.51 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.3% | 34.5% | 18.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
22.1%
0 - 0
21.7%
1 - 1
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Nardò | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sarnese | 0 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 29% | 43% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
63%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| Draws | 40% | 33% | 37% | 27% | 53% | 40% |
| Loses | 20% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 27% | 20% |
Form: Sarnese: DWWLLLDLDLLDWDWWDDLLDLWDDLWDWW • Nardò: LLDWLDWLDWDWWDDWDWDDWLWDDWDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 27 | 46 | 26 | 11 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 11 | 32 | 43 | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sarnese | Nardò | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 73% | 70% | 53% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 20% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 7% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 5-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sarnese | Nardò |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 59% | 41% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
Advice: Double chance : Sarnese or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Sarnese = 1.02 (league 1.40), Nardò = 0.51 (league 0.96)
| Nardò | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sarnese | 0 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.3% · Draw 34.5% · Away win 18.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1