Serie D - Girone H — Italy
Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 • Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa
Not Started

Nola 1925

—

Martina Franca

Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.36) 1.58 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.3% 25.1% 48.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
0 - 1
11.3%
1 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
Martina Franca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nola 1925 0 7.1% 11.3% 8.9% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6%
1 7.6% 11.9% 9.4% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6%
2 4.0% 6.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Martina Franca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 119 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nola 1925 -37.6, Martina Franca +11.4.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Nola 1925 Elo 1434.7 · -37.6
vs
Martina Franca Elo 1588.5 · +11.4
Elo gapMartina Franca +119
Home / draw / away28% / 18% / 54%
Expected home share34%
Combined Elo3023.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3023.2
Elo home share 34%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Nola 1925 Martina Franca
Overall Elo1434.71588.5
Form Elo1396.61597.4
Home / Away Elo1488.51504.4
Attack Elo14691523.9
Defense Elo1435.11587.5
Last 5 Elo change-37.6+11.4

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Nola 1925 last-5 Elo change: -37.6; Martina Franca last-5 Elo change: +11.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNola 1925Martina Franca
Played55
Form7%67%
Attack0%30%
Defense60%90%
Goals For (tot | avg)0 | 06 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.62 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nola 1925 Martina Franca
HATHAT
Played161733171633
Wins38%24%30%71%38%55%
Draws25%24%24%18%31%24%
Loses38%53%45%12%31%21%
Nola 1925WDDLWLLWDWWDWWLLLWDDLWDWLLLLLLLDL
Martina FrancaWWDDWWLWLDLLWDWWWDDLWWWWWWDLWDWLW

League goals

Metric Nola 1925 Martina Franca
HATHAT
GF total261440291746
GF avg1.60.81.21.71.11.4
GA total222749131528
GA avg1.41.61.50.80.90.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNola 1925Martina Franca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%79%73%55%
1.533%39%45%15%
2.515%21%18%12%
3.53%6%3%3%
4.50%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNola 1925Martina Franca
HATHAT
Clean sheets34710515
Failed to score3710369

Penalties

MetricNola 1925Martina Franca
Scored (total | %)10 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total104

Streaks

MetricNola 1925Martina Franca
Wins26
Draws22
Losses72

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-23-00-2
Biggest losses1-35-00-43-2
Goals For4243
Goals Against3543

Model comparison

MetricNola 1925Martina Franca
Form9%91%
Att0%100%
Def20%80%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total24.7%75.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Nola 1925 vs Martina Franca