Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Centro Universitario Sportivo
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.34)
2.04 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.2% | 21.4% | 47.1% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.9%
1 - 1
8.7%
2 - 2
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Savoia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AC Palermo | 0 | 2.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Savoia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 51 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AC Palermo -44.9, Savoia +17.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
AC Palermo
vs
Savoia
Elo gapSavoia +51
Home / draw / away33% / 24% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3193.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3193.8
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1553.8 | 1640 |
| Form Elo | 1541.5 | 1655.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.8 | 1544.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1595.2 | 1667.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1483.6 | 1589.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -44.9 | +17.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. AC Palermo last-5 Elo change: -44.9; Savoia last-5 Elo change: +17.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Attack | 44% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 50% | 53% | 63% | 50% | 56% |
| Draws | 25% | 13% | 19% | 38% | 19% | 28% |
| Loses | 19% | 38% | 28% | 0% | 31% | 16% |
AC PalermoDWDDWLDWWLWWLWDLWWWWLWWDWWWLLLLW
SavoiaDDWWDDWLWWWLWWLWLWDWDDWWDWDLWWWW
League goals
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 26 | 56 | 29 | 28 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 19 | 24 | 43 | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AC Palermo | Savoia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 78% | 88% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 59% | 44% | 56% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 13% | 22% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AC Palermo | Savoia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 20% | 80% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 15% | 85% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 26.8% | 73.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.80 @ Bet365
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away2.42 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.08 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.82 @ 1xBet
No1.90 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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