Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Vincenzo Presti
Expected Goals
1.68 (league 1.34)
0.76 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.5% | 24.0% | 16.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.6%
2 - 0
12.3%
1 - 1
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Vibonese | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gela | 0 | 8.7% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.6% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.3% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Gela carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 93 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gela -18.2, Vibonese -13.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Gela
vs
Vibonese
Elo gapGela +93
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2896.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2896.6
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1477.2 | 1419.4 |
| Form Elo | 1461.5 | 1397.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.7 | 1488.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1495.9 | 1420.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1460.5 | 1457.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.2 | -13.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Gela last-5 Elo change: -18.2; Vibonese last-5 Elo change: -13.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 27% |
| Attack | 44% | 56% |
| Defense | 22% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 25% | 41% | 31% | 13% | 22% |
| Draws | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 50% | 31% |
| Loses | 31% | 63% | 47% | 56% | 38% | 47% |
GelaDWWWLLLLWLLWWLWWLLWWLWLWDLDLWLDL
ViboneseWDDLWDWWLLDWDLDLDDLLWLLLLLDDWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 16 | 40 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 15 | 27 | 42 | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gela | Vibonese | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 75% | 56% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 34% | 31% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 13% | 6% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-1 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gela | Vibonese |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 55.6% | 44.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…