Sun, May 3 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio Aldo Campo
Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.33)
1.20 (league 1.07)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.2% | 27.4% | 35.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.0%
1 - 0
10.8%
0 - 1
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| AC Palermo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ragusa | 0 | 8.7% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.8% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
AC Palermo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ragusa -15.5, AC Palermo -44.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ragusa
vs
AC Palermo
Elo gapAC Palermo +47
Home / draw / away32% / 25% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3002.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3002.9
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1460.4 | 1542.5 |
| Form Elo | 1456.1 | 1521.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1505.2 | 1523.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1389.6 | 1590.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1583.5 | 1471.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -15.5 | -44.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ragusa last-5 Elo change: -15.5; AC Palermo last-5 Elo change: -44.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 20% |
| Attack | 8% | 42% |
| Defense | 75% | 8% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| Wins | 31% | 12% | 21% | 53% | 50% | 52% |
| Draws | 44% | 35% | 39% | 24% | 13% | 18% |
| Loses | 25% | 53% | 39% | 24% | 38% | 30% |
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AC PalermoDWDDWLDWWLWWLWDLWWWWLWWDWWWLLLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 4 | 22 | 31 | 26 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 13 | 19 | 32 | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ragusa | AC Palermo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 39% | 58% | 85% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 15% | 30% | 58% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 6% | 21% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 9% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-1 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ragusa | AC Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 17% | 83% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 48.6% | 51.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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