Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 21:30 • Estadio Deportivo Independiente MRCI
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.43 (league 1.52) 2.21 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.8% 18.9% 34.0%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.0%
2 - 1
6.3%
1 - 2
5.7%
Score & goals probability table
Celaya
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chapulineros 0 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4%
1 2.3% 5.2% 5.7% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0%
2 2.8% 6.3% 7.0% 5.1% 2.8% 1.3%
3 2.3% 5.1% 5.6% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0%
4 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6%
5 0.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChapulinerosCelaya
Played55
Form7%20%
Attack18%41%
Defense24%29%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.612 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

76%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chapulineros Celaya
HATHAT
Played336437
Wins33%0%17%50%0%29%
Draws33%0%17%0%0%0%
Loses33%100%67%50%100%71%

Form: Chapulineros: WLDLLL • Celaya: WLWLLLL

League goals

Metric Chapulineros Celaya
HATHAT
GF total3147613
GF avg1.00.30.71.82.01.9
GA total491361117
GA avg1.33.02.21.53.72.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChapulinerosCelaya
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%83%86%100%
1.50%67%57%71%
2.50%33%43%43%
3.50%17%0%29%
4.50%17%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChapulinerosCelaya
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score022101

Penalties

MetricChapulinerosCelaya
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricChapulinerosCelaya
Wins11
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-0—3-1—
Biggest losses1-35-11-24-1
Goals For1133
Goals Against3524

Model comparison

MetricChapulinerosCelaya
Form25%75%
Att30%70%
Def48%52%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total38.8%61.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Celaya and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.00 @ Unibet
Draw3.85 @ Unibet
Away1.95 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.68 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.20 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Unibet
No2.25 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chapulineros = 2.43 (league 1.52), Celaya = 2.21 (league 1.18)

Celaya
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chapulineros 0 1.0% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4%
1 2.3% 5.2% 5.7% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0%
2 2.8% 6.3% 7.0% 5.1% 2.8% 1.3%
3 2.3% 5.1% 5.6% 4.2% 2.3% 1.0%
4 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6%
5 0.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.8% · Draw 18.9% · Away win 34.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1