Sun, Nov 16 2025 • 01:00 • Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.61 (league 1.52) 1.02 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.4% 16.1% 12.5%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.2%
2 - 0
9.0%
3 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Montañeses
0 1 2 3 4 5
Celaya 0 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 6.9% 7.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.0% 9.2% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.9% 8.0% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 5.1% 5.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCelayaMontañeses
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack25%21%
Defense82%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

91%
FT probability

2.5+

64%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Celaya Montañeses
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins60%20%40%80%40%60%
Draws0%20%10%0%0%0%
Loses40%60%50%20%60%40%

Form: Celaya: WLWLLLLDWW • Montañeses: WWLWWLLWLW

League goals

Metric Celaya Montañeses
HATHAT
GF total1181911516
GF avg2.21.61.92.21.01.6
GA total611175914
GA avg1.22.21.71.01.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCelayaMontañeses
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%70%80%60%
1.560%50%50%50%
2.540%30%20%20%
3.510%20%10%10%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCelayaMontañeses
HATHAT
Clean sheets123314
Failed to score112022

Penalties

MetricCelayaMontañeses
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricCelayaMontañeses
Wins12
Draws10
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-24-02-3
Biggest losses1-24-12-43-0
Goals For4343
Goals Against2443

Model comparison

MetricCelayaMontañeses
Form54%46%
Att54%46%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total61.8%38.3%

Advice: Double chance : Celaya or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.97 @ 188Bet
Draw3.54 @ Pinnacle
Away4.00 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.80 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.00 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.72 @ Superbet
No2.10 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Celaya = 2.61 (league 1.52), Montañeses = 1.02 (league 1.18)

Montañeses
0 1 2 3 4 5
Celaya 0 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 6.9% 7.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
2 9.0% 9.2% 4.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.9% 8.0% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 5.1% 5.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.7% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.4% · Draw 16.1% · Away win 12.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1