Tue, Mar 3 2026 • 02:05 • Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.36 (league 1.53) 0.79 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
72.9% 9.5% 5.2%
best score tips
3 - 0
10.0%
2 - 0
8.9%
4 - 0
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
Chapulineros
0 1 2 3 4 5
Celaya 0 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 5.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.9% 7.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.0% 7.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 8.4% 6.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5 5.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCelayaChapulineros
Played55
Form67%20%
Attack75%19%
Defense56%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Celaya Chapulineros
HATHAT
Played910199918
Wins78%40%58%33%22%28%
Draws0%20%11%56%11%33%
Loses22%40%32%11%67%39%

Form: Celaya: WLWLLLLDWWWWWWWWDWL • Chapulineros: WLDLLLDDWLWWWDLDLD

League goals

Metric Celaya Chapulineros
HATHAT
GF total24143810919
GF avg2.71.42.01.11.01.1
GA total8162481725
GA avg0.91.61.30.91.91.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCelayaChapulineros
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.584%53%67%72%
1.558%37%28%39%
2.537%21%11%17%
3.511%16%0%6%
4.55%0%0%6%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCelayaChapulineros
HATHAT
Clean sheets459415
Failed to score123336

Penalties

MetricCelayaChapulineros
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricCelayaChapulineros
Wins83
Draws12
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-00-23-10-2
Biggest losses1-24-01-35-1
Goals For6332
Goals Against2435

Model comparison

MetricCelayaChapulineros
Form77%23%
Att80%20%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution82%18%
H2h50%50%
Goals0%0%
Total66.2%33.8%

Advice: Winner : Celaya

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.43 @ Unibet
Draw4.75 @ Betfair
Away7.70 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.58 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.35 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.77 @ 10Bet
No2.05 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Celaya = 3.36 (league 1.53), Chapulineros = 0.79 (league 1.14)

Chapulineros
0 1 2 3 4 5
Celaya 0 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 5.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 8.9% 7.0% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.0% 7.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 8.4% 6.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5 5.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 72.9% · Draw 9.5% · Away win 5.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1