Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 13:15 •
Sokoine Stadium
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.34)
0.60 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.6% | 32.9% | 20.4% |
best score tips
1 - 0
20.1%
0 - 0
18.7%
1 - 1
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Mashujaa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mbeya City | 0 | 18.7% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Mbeya City -19.1, Mashujaa +17.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Mbeya City
vs
Mashujaa
Elo gapMbeya City +8
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo2930.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2930.6
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1451.6 | 1479 |
| Form Elo | 1443.9 | 1476.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1472.8 | 1456.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1446.6 | 1387.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1443.1 | 1537.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.1 | +17.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Mbeya City last-5 Elo change: -19.1; Mashujaa last-5 Elo change: +17.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 24% | 29% |
| Defense | 24% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
54%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| Wins | 10% | 33% | 21% | 30% | 11% | 21% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 26% | 70% | 22% | 47% |
| Loses | 40% | 67% | 53% | 0% | 67% | 32% |
Mbeya CityWLDWLDLLLLLDDWLLWDL
MashujaaDWLLDWWDDLLLDLWDDDD
League goals
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| GA total | 14 | 16 | 30 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mbeya City | Mashujaa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 74% | 42% | 53% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 47% | 5% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 16% | 5% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 6-0 | — | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mbeya City | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 19% | 81% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 39.5% | 60.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…