Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:30 •
Campo do Morrazo
Expected Goals
1.30 (league 1.30)
1.21 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.6% | 26.9% | 34.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
1 - 0
10.6%
0 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| CD Lugo B | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alondras | 0 | 8.2% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.9% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Alondras carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 54 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Alondras +12.6, CD Lugo B -9.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Alondras
vs
CD Lugo B
Elo gapAlondras +54
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2988.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2988.6
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1504 | 1484.6 |
| Form Elo | 1500.8 | 1485.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504.7 | 1478.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1516.7 | 1426.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1500.9 | 1536.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.6 | -9.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Alondras last-5 Elo change: +12.6; CD Lugo B last-5 Elo change: -9.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 33% |
| Attack | 47% | 12% |
| Defense | 65% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 31% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Draws | 33% | 25% | 29% | 44% | 33% | 39% |
| Loses | 27% | 44% | 35% | 19% | 40% | 29% |
AlondrasWWWLDLLLDDLWWDLDWWLWDWDLLLDLWDW
CD Lugo BDWDWLWLDWDLLWWWDDDLLDDWLDWLLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 22 | 42 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 19 | 23 | 42 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alondras | CD Lugo B | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 68% | 74% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 52% | 23% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 13% | 3% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-4 | 2-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alondras | CD Lugo B |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 80% | 20% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 59.5% | 40.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…