Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:00 •
Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña
Expected Goals
2.96 (league 1.40)
1.12 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.6% | 14.1% | 11.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Siero | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Caudal | 0 | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Caudal carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 202 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Caudal +13.8, Siero -18.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Caudal
vs
Siero
Elo gapCaudal +202
Home / draw / away62% / 18% / 20%
Expected home share76%
Combined Elo3084.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3084.4
Elo home share
76%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Caudal | Siero |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1625.8 | 1458.6 |
| Form Elo | 1641.6 | 1440.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1564.6 | 1474.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1604.5 | 1455.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1596.5 | 1456 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.8 | -18.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Caudal last-5 Elo change: +13.8; Siero last-5 Elo change: -18.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Caudal | Siero |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 60% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Caudal | Siero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 69% | 50% | 59% | 44% | 19% | 31% |
| Draws | 19% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 31% | 25% |
| Loses | 13% | 31% | 22% | 38% | 50% | 44% |
CaudalDWWDWWWLDLDDWDWWWLLWWLWWLWWLWWWW
SieroDLLDWLLWWLWDWWWLLDDDLDWLDLLLLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Caudal | Siero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 41 | 15 | 56 | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| GF avg | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 23 | 14 | 37 | 21 | 26 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Caudal | Siero | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 78% | 72% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 53% | 25% | 38% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 13% | 9% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Caudal | Siero | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Caudal | Siero |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Caudal | Siero |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Caudal | Siero |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 72.8% | 27.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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