Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:00 •
Estadio San José
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.40)
2.55 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | 15.9% | 68.6% |
best score tips
0 - 2
10.3%
1 - 2
9.3%
0 - 3
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Covadonga | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Llanes | 0 | 3.2% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Covadonga carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 193 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Llanes -18.8, Covadonga +45.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Llanes
vs
Covadonga
Elo gapCovadonga +193
Home / draw / away21% / 18% / 61%
Expected home share25%
Combined Elo3177
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3177
Elo home share
25%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474.7 | 1702.3 |
| Form Elo | 1456.4 | 1722.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1503 | 1584.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1507 | 1887.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1473.7 | 1698.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.8 | +45.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Llanes last-5 Elo change: -18.8; Covadonga last-5 Elo change: +45.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 100% |
| Attack | 60% | 100% |
| Defense | 10% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 19 | 3.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 31% | 19% | 25% | 81% | 69% | 75% |
| Draws | 50% | 31% | 41% | 19% | 13% | 16% |
| Loses | 19% | 50% | 34% | 0% | 19% | 9% |
LlanesLDDWLLWWWDDDWLDDDWDDDDLLLWLDLLLW
CovadongaDWDWWWWWLWWWWWDDWWWWWDWWLWLWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 21 | 43 | 43 | 41 | 84 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 18 | 28 | 46 | 6 | 15 | 21 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Llanes | Covadonga | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 81% | 97% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 41% | 66% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 19% | 47% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 28% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 19% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 66.67% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 33.33% |
| Total | 3 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 6-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Llanes | Covadonga |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 21% | 79% |
| Att | 24% | 76% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 25% | 75% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 26.5% | 73.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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