Sun, Nov 16 2025 • 15:15 •
Estadio El Castañal
Expected Goals
1.66 (league 1.52)
0.27 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.0% | 21.8% | 5.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
24.2%
2 - 0
20.0%
0 - 0
14.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Castro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Selaya | 0 | 14.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.2% | 6.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 20.0% | 5.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Selaya | Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 27% | 27% |
| Defense | 53% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Selaya | Castro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 60% | 0% | 30% | 60% | 0% | 30% |
| Draws | 40% | 0% | 20% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 50% | 0% | 60% | 30% |
Form: Selaya: DLWWLLDLWL • Castro: DLWDLWDWLD
League goals
| Metric | Selaya | Castro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 4 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Selaya | Castro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Selaya | Castro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Selaya | Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Selaya | Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 9-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | — | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Selaya | Castro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Selaya or draw and -3.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Selaya = 1.66 (league 1.52), Castro = 0.27 (league 1.20)
| Castro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Selaya | 0 | 14.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.2% | 6.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 20.0% | 5.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 72.0% · Draw 21.8% · Away win 5.5%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1