Noja vs Revilla - footywow

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Spain

Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 • Campo La Caseta

Not Started

Noja

—

Revilla

Expected Goals

1.05 (league 1.53) 0.98 (league 1.14)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
36.3%	30.6%	32.9%

best score tips

1 - 0

13.8%

1 - 1

13.5%

0 - 0

13.2%

Score & goals probability table

		Revilla
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Noja	0	13.2%	13.0%	6.4%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%
	1	13.8%	13.5%	6.6%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
	2	7.2%	7.0%	3.5%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
	3	2.5%	2.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
	4	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Noja -32.3, Revilla -7.5.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Noja Elo 1362.5 · -32.3

Revilla Elo 1387.5 · -7.5

Elo gapNoja +10

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo2750

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2750

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Tactical Watch

Metric	Noja	Revilla
Overall Elo	1362.5	1387.5
Form Elo	1327.3	1369.1
Home / Away Elo	1447.6	1435.4
Attack Elo	1374.7	1436
Defense Elo	1350.2	1328.2
Last 5 Elo change	-32.3	-7.5

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Noja last-5 Elo change: -32.3; Revilla last-5 Elo change: -7.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Noja	Revilla
Played	5	5
Form	7%	27%
Attack	40%	40%
Defense	0%	20%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	4 \| 0.8
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	16 \| 3.2	8 \| 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%

FT probability

2.5+

53%

FT probability

3.5+

38%

FT probability

BTTS

62%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Noja			Revilla
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	15	16	31	16	15	31
Wins	13%	13%	13%	31%	13%	23%
Draws	27%	13%	19%	25%	13%	19%
Loses	60%	75%	68%	44%	73%	58%

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RevillaLLLDWLWLLWWWDDWLLDLDLLLLLLLLDLW

League goals

Metric	Noja			Revilla
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	12	8	20	22	11	33
GF avg	0.8	0.5	0.6	1.4	0.7	1.1
GA total	24	35	59	30	30	60
GA avg	1.6	2.2	1.9	1.9	2.0	1.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Noja		Revilla
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	48%	81%	55%	87%
1.5	13%	61%	32%	58%
2.5	3%	26%	13%	35%
3.5	0%	19%	3%	10%
4.5	0%	3%	3%	3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Noja			Revilla
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	2	6	2	2	4
Failed to score	7	9	16	4	10	14

Penalties

Metric	Noja	Revilla
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Noja	Revilla
Wins	2	3
Draws	2	2
Losses	9	8

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-0	1-2	3-1	0-5
Biggest losses	2-5	4-0	1-4	5-0
Goals For	3	2	3	5
Goals Against	5	4	4	5

Model comparison

Metric	Noja	Revilla
Form	20%	80%
Att	50%	50%
Def	33%	67%
Poisson Distribution	50%	50%
H2h	0%	100%
Goals	33%	67%
Total	37.2%	62.8%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Noja vs Revilla

Metric	Noja	Revilla
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0