Sun, May 3 2026 • 16:00 •
Campos del Carmen
Expected Goals
0.65 (league 1.53)
0.91 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.7% | 35.4% | 39.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
21.0%
0 - 1
19.1%
1 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Bezana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Colindres | 0 | 21.0% | 19.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 12.4% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Bezana carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Colindres +34.1, Bezana +18.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Colindres
vs
Bezana
Elo gapBezana +34
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2921.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2921.5
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1426.3 | 1495.2 |
| Form Elo | 1446.1 | 1497.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1474.5 | 1514.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1401.5 | 1486.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1477.4 | 1540.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +34.1 | +18.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Colindres last-5 Elo change: +34.1; Bezana last-5 Elo change: +18.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 80% | 90% |
| Defense | 50% | 60% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 31% | 6% | 19% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Draws | 31% | 31% | 31% | 19% | 31% | 25% |
| Loses | 38% | 63% | 50% | 44% | 31% | 38% |
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BezanaWLWDDLWLWWLWWLWDDDLWLLLLLDWWWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 18 | 20 | 38 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 13 | 29 | 42 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Colindres | Bezana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 75% | 63% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 41% | 38% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 6% | 16% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 6-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Colindres | Bezana |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 40.6% | 59.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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