Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4
Expected Goals
2.00 (league 1.50)
1.14 (league 1.05)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.6% | 21.5% | 21.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.9%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
8.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Derio | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Deportivo Alavés III | 0 | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Deportivo Alavés III carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 65 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Deportivo Alavés III +30.1, Derio -8.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Deportivo Alavés III
vs
Derio
Elo gapDeportivo Alavés III +65
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3081.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3081.7
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1555.6 | 1526.1 |
| Form Elo | 1568.9 | 1536.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1542.7 | 1513.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1618.9 | 1551.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1548 | 1525.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.1 | -8.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Deportivo Alavés III last-5 Elo change: +30.1; Derio last-5 Elo change: -8.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 40% |
| Attack | 92% | 54% |
| Defense | 62% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 53% | 38% | 45% | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Draws | 20% | 31% | 26% | 19% | 27% | 23% |
| Loses | 27% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
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DerioWLDLLWWWWLWDWDLLLWLWLWWDWWWLDDD
League goals
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 23 | 53 | 26 | 22 | 48 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 12 | 23 | 35 | 14 | 23 | 37 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 68% | 77% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 32% | 48% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 10% | 19% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 2-5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés III | Derio |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 63% | 37% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 59.8% | 40.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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