Lleida Esportiu vs Vilassar Mar

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Spain

Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 • Camp d'Esports de Lleida

Not Started

Lleida Esportiu

—

Vilassar Mar

Expected Goals

0.51 (league 1.40) 0.65 (league 1.11)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
24.4%	42.6%	33.0%

best score tips

0 - 0

31.3%

0 - 1

20.3%

1 - 0

16.1%

Score & goals probability table

		Vilassar Mar
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Lleida Esportiu	0	31.3%	20.3%	6.6%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%
	1	16.1%	10.4%	3.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
	2	4.1%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	3	0.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Lleida Esportiu -19.7, Vilassar Mar +25.1.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Lleida Esportiu Elo 1400.7 · -19.7

Vilassar Mar Elo 1427.5 · +25.1

Elo gapLleida Esportiu +8

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo2828.2

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 2828.2

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Lleida Esportiu	Vilassar Mar
Overall Elo	1400.7	1427.5
Form Elo	1382.1	1440.1
Home / Away Elo	1460.7	1456.9
Attack Elo	1327.2	1385.2
Defense Elo	1509.4	1491.2
Last 5 Elo change	-19.7	+25.1

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Lleida Esportiu last-5 Elo change: -19.7; Vilassar Mar last-5 Elo change: +25.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Lleida Esportiu	Vilassar Mar
Played	5	5
Form	13%	53%
Attack	18%	64%
Defense	45%	55%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	2 \| 0.4	7 \| 1.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	5 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%

FT probability

2.5+

38%

FT probability

3.5+

27%

FT probability

BTTS

54%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Lleida Esportiu			Vilassar Mar
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	15	16	31	16	15	31
Wins	27%	0%	13%	31%	13%	23%
Draws	33%	44%	39%	25%	40%	32%
Loses	40%	56%	48%	44%	47%	45%

Lleida EsportiuLLDLDLLLDWLDDWWLLDDWDLLDLDLLLDD

Vilassar MarLLLWDLDLLLWWDLLWWDLLDDLLDDDLDWW

League goals

Metric	Lleida Esportiu			Vilassar Mar
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	9	9	18	18	12	30
GF avg	0.6	0.6	0.6	1.1	0.8	1.0
GA total	14	25	39	20	18	38
GA avg	0.9	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Lleida Esportiu		Vilassar Mar
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	45%	68%	58%	71%
1.5	13%	42%	26%	35%
2.5	0%	16%	10%	13%
3.5	0%	0%	3%	3%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Lleida Esportiu			Vilassar Mar
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	6	4	10	6	3	9
Failed to score	9	8	17	5	8	13

Penalties

Metric	Lleida Esportiu	Vilassar Mar
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	3

Streaks

Metric	Lleida Esportiu	Vilassar Mar
Wins	2	2
Draws	2	3
Losses	3	3

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	—	3-0	1-4
Biggest losses	0-3	3-0	1-4	3-1
Goals For	2	2	3	4
Goals Against	3	3	4	3

Model comparison

Metric	Lleida Esportiu	Vilassar Mar
Form	20%	80%
Att	22%	78%
Def	45%	55%
Poisson Distribution	43%	57%
H2h	0%	100%
Goals	0%	100%
Total	32.5%	67.5%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Lleida Esportiu vs Vilassar Mar

Metric	Lleida Esportiu	Vilassar Mar
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	3